Further adoption of IPv6 has almost stopped in the Netherlands

Client-side IPv6 use

Let's start by looking at client use of IPv6. Globally, client-side use is growing slowly but steadily. Google reports that roughly 35 per cent of all visitors use IPv6 connections. Looking back at the data for the last few years, we see that the percentage reported by Google has been rising by about 5 percentage points a year.

However, if we zoom in on the Netherlands and compare adoption here with neighbouring countries, the picture is far from rosy. Both the starting position and the rate of growth in the Netherlands are poor. Adoption in the Netherlands is currently 29 per cent. As the following table shows, that's well below the level seen in nearby countries. Client-side use here is on a par with that in places on Europe's periphery.

What's more, we don't appear to be making ground on the leaders. On the contrary: we reached 26 per cent more than a year ago, and 22 per cent almost two years ago.

Netherlands lags behind

APNIC Labs, the research arm of the Regional Internet Registry (RIR) for the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, has produced a map that clearly illustrates how the Netherlands is lagging behind. Like Google, APNIC Labs measure client-side adoption and put the Dutch figure at 29 per cent.

Internet access providers

If we look a level deeper, we see that the country's two biggest access providers, KPN and Ziggo (part of VodafoneZiggo), have made considerable progress on IPv6 in the last two years.

When we published our major IPv6 survey three years ago, the Netherlands was already lagging well behind its neighbours in terms of client-side IPv6 adoption. At that time, the main reason was that neither KPN nor Ziggo offered their customers proper IPv6 internet connections. Since then, the 'big two' have made significant progress, but the rest of the industry has stood still. If we look at the data for individual networks (Autonomous Systems), we see that most smaller access providers and network operators are doing very badly on IPv6. There are some exceptions: Freedom, SURF, the University of Twente, XS4ALL (now part of KPN) and Zeelandnet (part of Delta) all stand out. However, those players are well-established technological innovators who adopted IPv6 long ago. For them, use of the latest technology is integral to their identity and reputation.

IPv6 traffic

Increasing overall use of IPv6 is also reflected in internet traffic data. Figures from the Amsterdam Internet Exchange (AMS-IX) show steady growth in IPv6 traffic.

However, if we look at the number of Dutch networks (Autonomous Systems) that advertise IPv6 routes using the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP), it's clear that, after growing significantly in the period 2008 to 2014, IPv6 use has since completely flatlined.

Our own data reveals a similar picture: the percentage of resolvers using IPv6 to request details of .nl domains' name servers has remained stuck on about 10 or 11 per cent for four years.

Iets vergelijkbaars zien we terug in onze eigen statistieken: het aandeel van de resolvers dat de name servers voor het .nl-domein over IPv6 bevraagt zit al vier jaar vast op zo'n 10 à 11 procent.

Server-side IPv6

Information about server-side IPv6 adoption is patchy. The IPv6 survey mentioned above revealed that few domain registrants/registrars had policies on IPv6, and that adoption wasn't progressing well. Levels of adoption also differed greatly from one sector to the next. The Dutch public sector stands out for its high levels of adoption, reflecting rules that oblige government bodies to support IPv6. Every six months, the Forum for Standardisation investigates the use of various mandatory website and e-mail security standards by government organisations. The survey also covers IPv6 adoption. From the survey, we know that, over the last two years, the number of government organisations reachable using IPv6 has gone up substantially. The latest report puts the figures at 79 per cent for web servers and 40 per cent for mail gateways. However, those numbers remain a long way from the 100 per cent support that the Dutch government said it was aiming for by the end of this year (in the Joint Ambition Statement).

According to the Forum for Standardisation, the SSC-ICT (the national government's Shared Services Centre) has a particularly long way to go in terms of implementing IPv6 support on its DNS, web and mail servers. Another stumbling block is that some government entities use proprietary cloud services that don't support IPv6 access. If the service providers can't be persuaded to adopt IPv6 in the near future, the Forum recommends switching to other providers.

IPv6 incentive scheme

Here at SIDN, we perform monthly scans of all .nl domains in connection with our registrars' incentive scheme. The scan results are used to calculate eligibility for incentives introduced to encourage good practices, including the use of modern internet standards such as DNSSEC, DANE for mail, SPF/DKIM/DMARC and IPv6. Our scan data on IPv6 confirms the picture of stalled adoption described above. Following introduction of the IPv6 incentive in summer 2017, the percentage of .nl domains whose web server or mail server (and associated name servers) were IPv6-enabled shot up. In the last two years, however, the rate of growth has tailed off considerably [1, 2]. What's more, the percentage of .nl domains whose mail server and web server (and associated name servers) are IPv6-enabled has increased only about half as much: by 1.1 million, compared with 2.2 million.

Percentage of .nl domains with either an IPv6-enabled web server or an IPv6-enabled mail server (and associated name servers). Source: SIDN.

Percentage of .nl domains whose name servers, mail servers and web servers are all IPv6-enabled (with breakdown). Source: SIDN.

Dialogue

With the aim of getting adoption moving again, we have increased our IPv6 incentive twice in recent years. At 12 cents per domain per six months, it is now higher than any of our other incentives. Yet the level of adoption remains stubbornly steady. Part of the explanation is likely to be the handicap of a head start. Because the Netherlands has traditionally been a pioneering country where the internet is concerned, Dutch access and service providers have bigger stocks of IPv4 addresses than their counterparts in many other parts of the world. In regions that took to the internet much later, the shortage of IPv4 addresses is far greater and more acute. In some countries, for example, IPv4 addresses are reserved for shared hosting and CGNAT gateways. However, our 'IPv4 address wealth' will be of little value when we reach the stage where IPv6-only clients elsewhere cannot reach our IPv4-only servers. Or when our IPv4-only clients cannot reach IPv6-only servers elsewhere. IPv6 is now fully mature: investment in and migration to IPv6 involve no technological risk, while the commercial risks are readily manageable. Indeed, with adoption already at 35 per cent, anyone who gets on board now no longer counts as an innovator or early adopter in Rogers' technology adoption model, but belongs to the early majority. Of the top fifteen .nl registrars (in terms of domain names hosted), seven have IPv6 support levels below 30 per cent. In other words, low-hanging fruit remains plentiful. And it seems that the problem is not the size of the available incentive – a device intended to bring the tipping point for investment in new technology a little closer. In the period ahead, we therefore plan to engage in dialogue with the key players to explore other possible ways of promoting IPv6.

IPv6 e-learning course and workshops

One final development to highlight is that we plan to make an IPv6 e-learning course available to registrars for free. Registrars who have taken the course will also be able to participate in free follow-up workshops on the practical implementation of IPv6.